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WIKIMAG n. 7 - Giugno 2013
Potential superpowers
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The present-day governments that have been claimed to become (or to
remain)
superpowers during the 21st century.
A potential superpower is a state or a political and economic
entity that is speculated to be, or is in the process of becoming, a
superpower at some point in the 21st century. Presently, only the
United States fulfils the criteria to be considered a superpower.[3][4]
States most commonly mentioned as being potential superpowers are
Brazil,[5][6][dead
link][7][dead
link]
China,[8]
India,
Russia[9][10]
(the BRIC
countries), and the
European Union (a
supranational entity),[11]
based on a variety of factors. Collectively, these potential superpowers
and the
United States comprise
66.6% of global nominal GDP,
62.2% of global GDP (PPP) (EU alone well above 20%), more than one
third of the total land area and more than 50% of the world's
population.
Predictions made in the past have not been perfect. For example, in
the 1980s, many political and economic analysts predicted that
Japan
would eventually accede to superpower status, due to its large
population, huge
gross domestic product and high economic growth at that time.[12][13]
Though still the world's third-largest economy as of 2012 in terms of
nominal GDP, Japan has faced an ongoing period of weak growth since the
Lost Decade of the 1990s, and has been suffering from an
aging population since the early 2000s, eroding its potential as a
superpower.[14]
Brazil
The
Federative Republic of Brazil is considered by a number of
analysts and academics a potential superpower of the 21st century.[5][6][dead
link][7][dead
link]
In a 2009 lecture entitled Brazil as an Emerging World Power,[5]
presented at the
Mario Einaudi Center for International Studies at
Cornell University, Leslie Elliot Armijo has said that "Brazil will
soon rise as
Latin America’s first superpower." Armijo states that "Brazil keeps
solidifying itself as leader of its region by launching a series of
integration projects," adding also that "as an international actor,
Brazil has also taken a larger share of world politics by incrementing
its already strong presence in economic initiatives, such as the
International Finance Facility and the
G20," asserting that "Brazil’s rising prominence derives from its
solid democratic rule and its strong economy" and concluding that "Soon,
we’ll have two superpowers in the
Western Hemisphere."[5][15][dead
link]
Elizabeth Reavey, a research associate from the
Council on Hemispheric Affairs, claims in the title of her 2008
article that While the US Looks Eastward Brazil Is Emerging as a
Nuclear Superpower.[6][dead
link] Describing the importance of the ongoing
development of nuclear technology in the country, she calls Brazil an
emerging superpower, with a "potential to have a China-like, booming
economy, increased nuclear capabilities, a growing self-confidence in
its own power and an ability to make its own way."
Brazil is often called an economic superpower,[16][17]
either present[18]
or future, and many experts and journalists compare Brazil with the
other potential superpowers of the
BRIC group.
Jonathan Power from
Transnational Foundation for Peace and Future Research claims in his
2006 article Brazil is Becoming an Economic and Political Superpower
that "Brazil has a
head start on India and China," saying that it has been positively
developing for over 100 years, and adding that "between 1960 and 1980
Brazil doubled its per capita income."[7]
Power also speculates that Brazil "has a good chance of emerging as the
world’s first economic superpower without
nuclear weapons." The lack of declared enemies and the fact it has
not engaged in any large scale conflicts since the end of the
Second World War also contributed for Brazil to so far not
maintaining an aggressive military force like the other great powers.
Contrary views
There are, however, numerous obstacles to Brazil reaching superpower
status. According to
Nobel Prize-winning economist
Paul Krugman, recognising Brazil's current economic strength is “not
the same as [saying] it will become the economic superpower [anytime
soon].”[19]
Similarly, energy analyst Mark Burger writes that Brazil, in general,
will improve its energy situation, but not to the point of being an
energy superpower.[20]
The much higher rate of crime in the country compared to all the
other potential superpowers, stubbornly high levels of income and
education inequality, social polarization, and the future of the much
less developed northern regions of the country remain concerns.[citation
needed]
Furthermore, a country needs to achieve
great power status first, before becoming a superpower, and it could
be disputed whether Brazil currently qualifies as a great power.
China
The
People's Republic of China receives continual coverage in the
popular press of its potential superpower status,[21]
and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic and military
superpower by academics and other experts. In fact, the "rise of China"
has been named the top news story of the 21st century by the
Global Language Monitor, as measured by number of appearances in the
global print and electronic media, on the Internet and blogosphere, and
in Social Media.[22][23][24][25][26]
The term "Second
Superpower" has also been applied by scholars to the possibility
that the
People's Republic of China could
emerge as a "second superpower," with
global power and influence on par with the
United States.[27][28][29]
The potential for the two countries to form stronger relations to
address global issues is sometimes referred to as the
Group of Two.
Barry Buzan asserted in 2004 that "China certainly presents the most
promising all-round profile" of a potential superpower.[30]
Buzan claimed that "China is currently the most fashionable potential
superpower and the one whose degree of alienation from the dominant
international society makes it the most obvious political challenger."
However, he noted this challenge is constrained by the major challenges
of development and by the fact that its rise could trigger a counter
coalition of states in
Asia.
Parag Khanna stated in 2008 that by making massive trade and
investment deals with Latin America and Africa, China had established
its presence as a superpower along with the
European Union and the
United States. China's rise is demonstrated by its ballooning share
of trade in its
gross domestic product. He believed that China's "consultative
style" had allowed it to develop political and economic ties with many
countries including those viewed as rogue states by the United States.
He stated that the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization founded with Russia and the
Central Asian countries may eventually be the "NATO of the East".[31]
Economist and author of Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's
Economic Dominance Arvind Subramanian argued in 2012 that China will
direct the world's financial system by 2020 and that the Chinese
renminbi will replace the
dollar
as the world's
reserve currency in 10 to 15 years. The United States'
soft power will remain longer. He stated that "China was a top dog
economically for thousands of years prior to the
Ming Dynasty. In some ways, the past few hundred years have been an
aberration."[32]
Lawrence Saez at the School of Oriental and African Studies, London,
argued in 2011 that the United States will be surpassed by China as
military superpower within twenty years. Regarding economic power, the
Director of the China Center for Economic Reform at Peking University
Yao Yang stated that "Assuming that the Chinese and U.S. economies grow,
respectively, by 8% and 3% in real terms, that China's inflation rate is
3.6% and America's is 2% (the averages of the last decade), and that the
renminbi appreciates against the dollar by 3% per year (the average of
the last six years), China will become the world's largest economy by
2021. By that time, both countries' GDP will be about $24 trillion."[33]
Historian
Timothy Garton Ash argued in 2011, pointing to factors such as the
International Monetary Fund predicting that China's GDP (purchasing
power parity adjusted) will overtake that of the United States in
2016, that a power shift to a world with several superpowers was
happening "Now". However, China was still lacking in soft power and
power projection abilities and had a low
GDP/person. The article also stated that the
Pew Research Center in a 2009 survey found that people in 15 out of
22 countries believed that China had or would overtake the US as the
world's leading superpower.[34]
In an interview given in 2011, Singapore's first premier,
Lee Kuan Yew, stated that while China supplanting the United States
is not a forgone conclusion, Chinese leaders are nonetheless serious
about displacing the United States as the most powerful country in Asia.
“They have transformed a poor society by an economic miracle to become
now the second-largest economy in the world. How could they not aspire
to be number 1 in Asia, and in time the world?”[35]
The Chinese strategy, Yew maintains, will revolve around their “huge and
increasingly highly skilled and educated workers to out-sell and
out-build all others.”[36]
Nevertheless, relations with the United States, at least in the medium
term, will not take a turn for the worst because China will “avoid any
action that will sour up relations with the U.S. To challenge a stronger
and technologically superior power like the U.S. will abort their
‘peaceful rise.'"[36]
Though Yew believes China is genuinely interested in growing within the
global framework the United States has created, it is biding its time
until it becomes strong enough to successfully redefine the prevailing
political and economic order.[37]
Chinese foreign policy advisor
Wang
Jisi in 2012 stated that many Chinese officials see China as a
first-class power which should be treated as such. China is argued to
soon become the world's largest economy and to be making rapid progress
in many areas. The United States is seen as a declining superpower as
indicated by factors such as poor economic recovery, financial disorder,
high deficit and unemployment, and increasing political polarization.[38][39]
Contrary views
Geoffrey Murphay's China: The Next Superpower (2008) argued
that while the potential for China is high, this is fairly perceived
only by looking at the risks and obstacles China faces in managing its
population and resources. The political situation in China may become
too fragile to survive into superpower status according to
Susan Shirk in China: Fragile Superpower (2008).[40]
Other factors that could constrain China's ability to become a
superpower in the future include limited supplies of energy and raw
materials, questions over its innovation capability, inequality and
corruption, and risks to social stability and the environment.
Minxin Pei argued in 2010 that China is not a superpower and it will
not be one anytime soon and argued that China faces daunting political
and economic challenges.[41]
In 2012 he argued that China, despite using economic power to influence
some nations, has few real friends or allies and is surrounded by
potentially hostile nations. This situation could improve if regional
territorial disputes would be resolved and China would participate in an
effective regional defense system that would reduce the fears of its
neighbors. Alternatively, a democratization of China would dramatically
improve foreign relations with many nations.[42]
Amy
Chua stated in 2007 that whether a country has enough pull to bring
immigrants is an important quality for a superpower. She also wrote that
China lacks the pull to bring scientists, thinkers, and innovators from
other countries as immigrants. However, she believed that China made up
for this with its own
diaspora, and said that size and resources for them are
unparalleled.[43]
European Union
The
European Union (EU) has been called an emerging superpower by
academics.[11][44]
Many scholars and academics like T.R. Reid,[45]
Andrew Reding,[46]
Andrew Moravcsik,[47]
Mark Leonard,[48]
Jeremy Rifkin,[49]
John McCormick,[50]
and some politicians like
Romano Prodi[51]
and
Tony Blair[52][53]
either believe that the EU is, or will become, a superpower in the 21st
century.
Mark Leonard cites several factors: the EU's large population, large
economy (the EU has the largest economy in the world), low inflation
rates, the unpopularity and perceived failure of US foreign policy in
recent years, and certain EU member states' high quality of life
(especially when measured in terms such as hours worked per week, health
care, social services).[54]
John McCormick believes that the EU has already achieved superpower
status, based on the size and global reach of its economy and on its
global political influence. He argues that the nature of power has
changed since the
Cold
War-driven definition of superpower was developed, and that military
power is no longer essential to great power; he argues that control of
the means of production is more important than control of the means of
destruction, and contrasts the threatening hard power of the United
States with the opportunities offered by the
soft power wielded by the European Union.[55]
Parag Khanna believes that the EU, together with China, has already
achieved superpower status and rivals the US for influence around the
world.[56][57]
He also mentions the large economy of the EU, that European technologies
more and more set the global standards and that European countries give
the most development assistance. He agrees with McCormick that the EU
does not need a common army to be a superpower. The EU uses intelligence
and the police to apprehend radical
Islamists, social policy to try to integrate restive
Muslim
populations and economic strength to incorporate the former
Soviet Union and gradually subdue
Russia.[56]
Khanna also writes that
South America,
East
Asia, and other regions prefer to emulate the "European
Dream" than the
American variant.[58]
This could possibly be seen in the
African Union and
UNASUR. Notably, the EU as a whole is among the most culturally
diverse "entities" on the planet,[59]
with some of the world's largest and most influential languages being
official within its borders.[60]
Andrew Reding also takes the
future EU enlargement into account. An eventual future accession of
the rest of
Europe, the whole of Russia, and Turkey, would not only boost the
economy of the EU, but it would also increase the EU's population to
about 800 million, which he considers almost equal to that of
India or
China.
The EU is qualitatively different from India and China since it is
enormously more prosperous and technologically advanced.[46]
Turkish PM
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said in 2005: "In 10 or 15 years, the EU will
be a place where civilizations meet. It will be a superpower with the
inclusion of Turkey."
[61]
Robert J. Guttman wrote in 2001 that the very definition of the term
superpower has changed and in the 21st century, it does not only refer
to states with military power, but also to groups such as the European
Union, with strong market economics, young, highly educated workers
savvy in high technology, and a global vision.[62]
Friis Arne Petersen, the Danish ambassador to the US, has expressed
similar views. He conceded that the EU is a “special kind of
superpower,” one that has yet to establish a unified military force that
exerts itself even close to the same level as many of its individual
members.[63]
Additionally, it is argued by commentators that full political
integration is not required for the European Union to wield
international influence: that its apparent weaknesses constitute its
real strengths (as of its low profile diplomacy and the emphasis on the
rule of law)[55]
and that the EU represents a new and potentially more successful type of
international actor than traditional ones;[64]
however, it is uncertain if the effectiveness of such an influence would
be equal to that of a politically integrated superpower such as the
United States.[65]
Barry Buzan notes that the EU's potential superpower status depends
on its "stateness". It is unclear though how much state-like quality is
needed for the EU to be described as a superpower. Buzan states that the
EU is likely to remain a potential superpower for a long time because
although it has material wealth, its "political weakness and its erratic
and difficult course of internal political development, particularly as
regards a common foreign and defence policy" constrains it from being a
superpower.[30]
Alexander Stubb, the
Finnish
Minister for Foreign Affairs, has said that he thinks the EU is both
a superpower and not a superpower. While the EU is a superpower in the
sense that it is the largest
political union,
single market and aid donor in the world, it is not a superpower in
the defense or foreign policy spheres. Like Barry Buzan, Alexander Stubb
thinks that the most major factor constraining the EU’s rise to
superpower status is its lack of statehood in the international system,
other factors are its lack of internal drive to project power worldwide,
and continued preference for the sovereign nation-state amongst some
Europeans.
To counterbalance these, he urged the EU leaders to approve and ratify
the
Lisbon Treaty (which they did in 2009), create an EU foreign
ministry (EEAS,
led by
High Representative
Catherine Ashton, will be finished in 2012), develop a
common EU defense, hold one collective seat at the
UN Security Council and
G8, and address
what he described as the “sour mood” toward the EU prevalent in some
European countries today.[66]
Contrary views
Some do not believe that the EU will achieve superpower status. "The
EU is not and never will be a superpower" according to the former UK
Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs
David Miliband.[67]
Lacking a unified foreign policy and with an inability to project
military power worldwide, the EU lacks "the substance of superpowers,"
who by definition have "first of all military reach [and] possess the
capacity to arrive quickly anywhere with troops that can impose their
government's will.".[68]
EU parliamentarian Ilka Schroeder argues that conflicts such as the
Israeli-Palestinian dispute see close EU involvement largely to
compensate for European inability to project military power
internationally.[69]
The Economist's
Robert Lane Greene notes that the lack of a strong European military
only exacerbates the lack of unified EU foreign policy and discounts any
EU arguments towards superpower status, noting especially that the EU's
creation of a global response force rivaling the superpower's (United
States of America) is "unthinkable."[70]
The biggest barrier to European superpowerdom is that European elites
refuse to bring their postmodern fantasies about the illegitimacy of
military "hard power" into line with the way the rest of the world
interprets reality" according to Soren Kern of Strategic Studies Group.[71]
Britain's
Michael Howard has warned against the "worry" that many Europeans
are pushing for greater EU integration to counterbalance the United
States,[72]
while Europe's total reliance on soft (non-military) power is in part
because of its lack of a "shared identity."
[73] While to some the European Union should be a "model
power" unafraid of using military force and backing free trade, its
military shortcomings argue against superpower status.[74]
India
Several media publications and academics have discussed the
Republic of
India's potential of becoming a superpower.[75][76][77]
Newsweek and the
International Herald Tribune join several academics in
discussing
India's potential of becoming a superpower.[77][78]
Anil Gupta is almost certain that India will become a superpower in
the 21st century. As an example, he states that due to India's
functional institutions of democracy and its relatively
corruption-free society, it will emerge as a desirable,
entrepreneurial and resource and energy-efficient superpower in the near
future. He predicts that by 2015 India will overtake China to be the
fastest growing economy in the world and emerge as a full-fledged
economic superpower by 2025. In addition to that, he states, India has
the potential to serve as a leading example of how to combine rapid
economic growth with fairness towards and inclusion of those at the
bottom rungs of the ladder and of efficient resource utilization,
especially in energy.[79]
Robyn Meredith claims that both India and China will be superpowers.
However, she points out that China is decades ahead of India, and that
the average Chinese person is better off than the average Indian person.[80]
Amy
Chua also adds to this, stating that while India's potential for
superpower is great, it still faces many problems such as "pervasive
rural poverty, entrenched
corruption, and high
inequality just to name a few". Also like China, India lacks the
"pull" for immigrants, and Indians still continue to emigrate in large
numbers. However, she notes that India has made tremendous strides to
fix this, stating that some of India's achievements, such as working to
dismantle the centuries-old
caste system and maintaining the world's largest diverse democracy
is historically unprecedented.[43]
Fareed Zakaria also believes that India has a fine chance at
becoming a superpower, pointing out that India's young population
coupled with the
second largest
English-speaking population in the world could give India an
advantage over China. He also believes that while other industrial
countries will face a youth gap, India will have lots of young people,
or in other words, workers. According to Zakaria, another strength that
India has is that despite being one of the poorer countries in the
world, its democratic government has lasted for 60 years, stating that a
democracy can provide for long-term stability.[81]
Founder and President of the Economic Strategy Institute and former
counselor to the Secretary of Commerce in the Reagan Administration
Clyde V. Prestowitz Jr. has predicted that "It is going to be
India's century. India is going to be the biggest economy in the world.
It is going to be the biggest superpower of the 21st century."[82]
Contrary views
Parag Khanna believes that India is not, nor will it become a
superpower for the foreseeable future, lagging decades behind China in
both development and strategic appetite.[83]
Instead, he believes India will be a key swing state along with Russia.[84]
He says that India is "big but not important", has a highly successful
professional class, while
millions of its citizens still live in extreme
poverty.
He also writes that it matters that China borders a dozen more countries
than India and is not hemmed in by a vast ocean and the world's tallest
mountains. China has a loyal diaspora twice the size of India's and
enjoys a head start in Asian and African marketplaces.[85]
However in a recent article written by
Parag Khanna, he says that
India,
along with
China will grow ever stronger, while other powers, like
Europe,
muddle along.[86]
Lant Pritchett, reviewing the book In Spite of the Gods: The
Strange Rise of Modern India, writes that, while India has had
impressive growth and has some world class institutions, several other
indicators are puzzlingly poor. The
malnutrition in India and the coverage of
immunization programs are at levels similar or worse than in much
poorer sub-Saharan African nations. In the
Demographic and Health Surveys India's child
malnutrition was the worst of the 42 nations with comparable and
recent data.[87]
Adult
literacy is low. In one study 26% of teachers were absent from work
and 1/3 of those showing up did not teach. 40% of health care workers
were absent from work.
Corruption is high.
Caste politics in India remains an important force. Pritchett argues
that a very large population, a very long statistical "tail" of high
quality students, and some very good higher education institutions gives
a misleading impression of Indian education. Indian students placed
forty-first and thirty-seventh in a study comparing students in the two
Indian states
Orissa and
Rajasthan to the forty-six nations in the 2003
Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study.[87]
Despite being the world’s seventh largest military spender, retaining
a nuclear stockpile of at least 80 warheads, and boasting $48.9 billion
defense budget, India—according to a 2013 report by
The Economist—lacks strategic ambition usually associated with great
powers. “Apart from the always-vocal press and New Delhi’s lively think
tanks, India and its leaders show little interest in military or
strategic issues.”[88]
Though it has fought limited wars with China and Pakistan, India’s
“political class shows little sign of knowing or caring how the
country’s military clout should be deployed.”[88]
The absence of a strategic culture has undermined India’s procurement
system, leaving the country dependent on foreigners for military
modernization. “The defense industrial sector, dominated by the
sprawling
Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO), remains stuck
in state control and the country’s protectionist past. According to a
recent defense ministry audit, only 29% of the products developed by the
DRDO in the past 17 years have entered service with the armed forces.
The organization is a byword for late-arriving and expensive flops.”[88]
Russia
|
This
section requires
expansion. (November 2012) |
The
Russian Federation has been suggested by some as a potential
candidate for resuming superpower status in the 21st century.[9][10]
According to economist Steven Rosefielde of the
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, Russia intends to
"reemerge as a full-fledged superpower," and "contrary to conventional
wisdom, this goal is easily within the Kremlin's grasp, but the cost to
the Russian people and global security would be immense."[89]
Rosefielde further argues that Russia "has an intact military-industrial
complex...and the mineral wealth to reactivate its dormant structurally
militarized potential," and that "supply-side constraints don't preclude
a return to prodigal superpowerdom".[89][90]
Military analyst Alexander Golts of
The St. Petersburg Times argues that
President
Vladimir Putin's confrontations with the U.S. on nuclear issues are
in pursuit of regaining superpower status for Russia.[91]
It has been argued that
Russia's foreign policy toward bordering countries is designed with
the ultimate goal of regaining superpower status.[92]
Mike Ritchie of industry analysts Energy Intelligence says "Russia was
always a superpower that used its energy to win friends and influence
among its former Soviet satellites. Nothing has really changed much.
They are back in the same game, winning friends and influencing people
and using their power to do so."[93]
Contrary views
Vladimir Radyuhin, writing in
The
Hindu, states that the political and economic systems of Russia
are driving away the highly qualified and entrepreneurs with the
population only stabilized by the immigration of unskilled laborers from
other former Soviet States.[94]
Russia's population has also been shrinking since the collapse of the
Soviet Union, whilst the country also shows signs of having an aging
population, points that
Fred
Weir believe constricts Russia's potential to re-emerge as a central
world power.[95]
Comparison
Brazil |
193,946,886 (5th) |
.730 (84th) |
$2,425 (7th) |
31 (14th) |
40,022 (18th) |
12.9 (15th) |
NO |
1.72% (13th) |
1.86% (12th) |
$35.4 (10th) |
1,667,710 (10th) |
NO |
China |
1,347,338,352 (1st) |
.699 (100th) |
$8,250 (2nd) |
136 (3rd) |
696,939 (3rd) |
14.8 (14th) |
YES |
3.81% (7th) |
3.25% (6th) |
$143.0 (2nd) |
3,085,000 (4th) |
YES |
EU[C] |
503,492,041 |
.876 |
$16,414 |
412 |
1,840,276 |
5.9 |
NO[D] |
30.59% |
28.33% |
$261.7 |
4,343,789 |
NO[E] |
India |
1,210,193,422 (2nd) |
.554 (134th) |
$1,946 (10th) |
56 (8th) |
41,361 (14th) |
5.7 (22nd) |
NO |
2.34% (10th) |
3.08% (7th) |
$48.9 (7th) |
4,467,821 (3rd) |
YES |
Russia |
143,369,806 (9th) |
.788 (54th) |
$2,023 (8th) |
30 (15th) |
168,558 (7th) |
60.0 (8th) |
YES |
2.39% (9th) |
2.44% (10th) |
$71.9 (3rd) |
3,075,000 (5th) |
YES |
US |
312,913,872 (3rd) |
.937 (3rd) |
$15,653 (1st) |
543 (1st) |
2,113,628 (1st) |
20.7 (13th) |
YES |
16.75% (1st) |
15.14% (1st) |
$711.0 (1st) |
8766 (7th) |
YES |
^A billions
$US
^B billions
bbl
^C
supranational union, not a proper
state
^D the
UK and
France are permanent members
^E the
UK and
France have nuclear weapons, others participate in
NATO
nuclear sharing |
See also
References
-
^
Country profile: United States of America, BBC News,
Accessed July 22, 2008
-
^
"Analyzing American Power in the Post-Cold War Era".
Retrieved 2007-02-28.
-
^
"The Lonely Superpower". Huntington, Samuel P. 1999.
Retrieved 2010-08-04.
-
^
"Lonely Superpower or Unapologetic Hyperpower?, Analyzing
American Power in the Post-Cold War Era". Kim Richard
Nossal. 1999. Retrieved
2010-08-04.
-
^
a
b
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