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WIKIBOOKS
DISPONIBILI
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ART
- Great Painters
BUSINESS&LAW
- Accounting
- Fundamentals of Law
- Marketing
- Shorthand
CARS
- Concept Cars
GAMES&SPORT
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- The World of Sports

COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY
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- PHP Language and Applications
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EDUCATION
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MEDICINE
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MUSIC&DANCE
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SCIENCE
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- Nanotechnology
LIFESTYLE
- Cosmetics
- Diets
- Vegetarianism and Veganism
TRADITIONS
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NATURE
- Animals

- Fruits And Vegetables



ARTICLES IN THE BOOK

  1. ACNielsen
  2. Advertising
  3. Affiliate marketing
  4. Ambush marketing
  5. Barriers to entry
  6. Barter
  7. Billboard
  8. Brainstorming
  9. Brand
  10. Brand blunder
  11. Brand equity
  12. Brand management
  13. Break even analysis
  14. Break even point
  15. Business model
  16. Business plan
  17. Business-to-business
  18. Buyer leverage
  19. Buying
  20. Buying center
  21. Buy one, get one free
  22. Call centre
  23. Cannibalization
  24. Capitalism
  25. Case studies
  26. Celebrity branding
  27. Chain letter
  28. Co-marketing
  29. Commodity
  30. Consumer
  31. Convenience store
  32. Co-promotion
  33. Corporate branding
  34. Corporate identity
  35. Corporate image
  36. Corporate Visual Identity Management
  37. Customer
  38. Customer satisfaction
  39. Customer service
  40. Database marketing
  41. Data mining
  42. Data warehouse
  43. Defensive marketing warfare strategies
  44. Demographics
  45. Department store
  46. Design
  47. Designer label
  48. Diffusion of innovations
  49. Direct marketing
  50. Distribution
  51. Diversification
  52. Dominance strategies
  53. Duopoly
  54. Economics
  55. Economies of scale
  56. Efficient markets hypothesis
  57. Entrepreneur
  58. Family branding
  59. Financial market
  60. Five and dime
  61. Focus group
  62. Focus strategy
  63. Free markets
  64. Free price system
  65. Global economy
  66. Good
  67. Haggling
  68. Halo effect
  69. Imperfect competition
  70. Internet marketing
  71. Logo
  72. Mail order
  73. Management
  74. Market
  75. Market economy
  76. Market form
  77. Marketing
  78. Marketing management
  79. Marketing mix
  80. Marketing orientation
  81. Marketing plan
  82. Marketing research
  83. Marketing strategy
  84. Marketplace
  85. Market research
  86. Market segment
  87. Market share
  88. Market system
  89. Market trends
  90. Mass customization
  91. Mass production
  92. Matrix scheme
  93. Media event
  94. Mind share
  95. Monopolistic competition
  96. Monopoly
  97. Monopsony
  98. Multi-level marketing
  99. Natural monopoly
  100. News conference
  101. Nielsen Ratings
  102. Oligopoly
  103. Oligopsony
  104. Online marketing
  105. Opinion poll
  106. Participant observation
  107. Perfect competition
  108. Personalized marketing
  109. Photo opportunity
  110. Planning
  111. Positioning
  112. Press kit
  113. Price points
  114. Pricing
  115. Problem solving
  116. Product
  117. Product differentiation
  118. Product lifecycle
  119. Product Lifecycle Management
  120. Product line
  121. Product management
  122. Product marketing
  123. Product placement
  124. Profit
  125. Promotion
  126. Prototyping
  127. Psychographic
  128. Publicity
  129. Public relations
  130. Pyramid scheme
  131. Qualitative marketing research
  132. Qualitative research
  133. Quantitative marketing research
  134. Questionnaire construction
  135. Real-time pricing
  136. Relationship marketing
  137. Retail
  138. Retail chain
  139. Retail therapy
  140. Risk
  141. Sales
  142. Sales promotion
  143. Service
  144. Services marketing
  145. Slogan
  146. Spam
  147. Strategic management
  148. Street market
  149. Supply and demand
  150. Supply chain
  151. Supply Chain Management
  152. Sustainable competitive advantage
  153. Tagline
  154. Target market
  155. Team building
  156. Telemarketing
  157. Testimonials
  158. Time to market
  159. Trade advertisement
  160. Trademark
  161. Unique selling proposition
  162. Value added


 

 
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MARKETING
This article is from:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_trends

All text is available under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Text_of_the_GNU_Free_Documentation_License 

Market trends

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 
Bull and bear statues in front of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange
Bull and bear statues in front of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange

In investing, financial markets are commonly believed to have market trends that can be classified as primary trends, secondary trends (short-term), and secular trends (long-term). This belief is generally consistent with the non-scientific practice of technical analysis and broadly inconsistent with the efficient markets hypothesis.

A bull market is a prolonged period of time when prices are rising in a financial market faster than their historical average, in contrast to a bear market which is a prolonged period of time when prices are falling.

Investors can be described as having bullish or bearish sentiments. Market trends are witnessed when bulls (buyers) outnumber bears (sellers), or vice versa, consistently over time. In general, a bull or bear market refers to the market and sentiment as a whole but it can also be used to refer to specific securities, sectors, or similar ("bullish on IBM", "bullish on technology stocks" or "bearish on gold", for example).

Primary market trends

Bull market

A bull market tends to be associated with increasing investor confidence, motivating investors to buy in anticipation of further capital gains. The longest and most famous bull market was in the 1990s when the U.S. and many other global financial markets grew at their fastest pace ever [1].

In describing financial market behavior, the largest group of market participants is often referred to, metaphorically, as a herd. This is especially relevant to participants in bull markets since bulls are herding animals. A bull market is also described as a bull run. Dow Theory attempts to describe the character of these market movements.

Bear market

A bear market tends to be accompanied by widespread pessimism. Investors anticipating further losses are motivated to sell, with negative sentiment feeding on itself in a vicious circle. The most famous bear market in history was the Great Depression of the 1930s [2].

Prices fluctuate constantly on the open market; a bear market is not a simple decline, but a substantial drop in the prices of a range of issues over a defined period of time. By one common definition, a bear market is marked by a price decline of 20% or more in a key stock market index from a recent peak over at least a two-month period. [citation needed] However, no consensual definition of a bear market exists to clearly differentiate a primary market trend from a secondary market trend.

Secondary market trends

A secondary trend is a temporary change in price within a primary trend. These usually last a few weeks to a few months. A temporary decrease during a bull market is called a correction; a temporary increase during a bear market is called a bear market rally.

Whether a change is a correction or rally can be determined only with hindsight. When trends begin to appear, market analysts debate whether it is a correction/rally or a new bull/bear market, but it is difficult to tell. A correction sometimes foreshadows a bear market.

Correction

A market correction is a sometimes defined as a drop of at least 10%, but not more than 20% (25% on intraday trading).

Major disasters or negative geopolitical events can spark a correction. One example is the performance of the stock markets just before and after the September 11, 2001 attacks. On September 7, 2001, the Dow fell 234.99 points to 9,605.85, thoroughly pushing the Dow into a correction. On September 17, 2001, the first day of trading after the attacks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 684.81 points to 8,920.70. That loss officially pushed the Dow, not just even further into a correction, but a bear market. (Although unless investors had prior knowledge of the events of September 11, 2001, it would be impossible for the attacks to have had an effect on the markets ahead of time.)

Because of depressed prices and valuation, market corrections can be a good opportunity for value-strategy investors. If one buys stocks when everyone else is selling, the prices fall and therefore the P/E ratio goes down. In addition, one is able to purchase undervalued stocks with a highly probable upside potential.

Bear market rally

A bear market rally is sometimes defined as a rise of at least 10%, but no more than 20%.

Notable bear market rallies occurred in the Dow Jones index after the 1929 stock market crash leading up to the market bottom in 1932, as well as throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. The Japanese Nikkei stock average has been typified by a number of bear market rallies since the late 1980s while experiencing an overall downward trend.

Secular market trends

A secular market trend is a long-term trend that lasts 5 to 20 years, and consists of sequential primary trends. In a secular bull market the bear markets are smaller than the bull markets. Typically, each bear market does not wipe out the gains of the previous bull market, and the next bull market makes up the losses of the bear market. Conversely, in a secular bear market, the bull markets are smaller than the bear markets and do not wipe out the losses of the previous bear market.

An example of a secular bear market was seen in gold over the period between January 1980 to June 1999, over which the gold price fell from a high of $850/oz to a low of $253/oz [3], which formed part of the Great Commodities Depression. Conversely, the S&P 500 experienced a secular bull market over a similar time period [4].

These secular bull and bear market trends are also termed "super cycles". "Grand supercycles" of 50 to 300 years have also been proposed by Nikolai Kondratiev and Ralph Nelson Elliott.

Market events

Main articles: Stock market boom, Stock market crash, and Stock market bubble

An exaggerated bull market fueled by overconfidence and/or speculation can lead to a stock market bubble. At the other extreme, an exaggerated bear market, that tends to be associated with falling investor confidence and panic selling, can lead to a stock market crash and a recession.

Causes

Both bull and bear markets may be fueled by sound economic considerations and/or by speculation and/or investors psychological biases. The stock market is controlled by people and, as a result, emotions. Expectations play a large part in financial markets and in the changes from bull to bear environments. More precisely, attention should be paid to positive surprises and negative surprises. The tendency is for positive surprises to characterise a bull market (when the news continually tends to exceed investor's expectations) and conversely negative surprises tend to characterise the bear market (with expectations disappointed).

Technical analysis

Main article: Technical analysis

Technical analysis attempts to determine whether a market or security is in a bull or bear phase and to generate trading strategies to exploit this phase. Many technical analysts believe that financial markets are cyclical and move in and out of bull and bear market phases regularly.

Etymology

The precise origin of the phrases "bull market" and "bear market" is obscure. The most common etymology points to London bearskin "jobbers" (brokers),[citation needed] who would sell bearskins before the bears had actually been caught in contradiction of the proverb ne vendez pas la peau de l'ours avant de l’avoir tué ("don't sell the bearskin before you've killed the bear")—an admonition against over-optimism [citation needed]. By the time of the South Sea Bubble of 1721, the bear was also associated with short selling; jobbers would sell bearskins they did not own in anticipation of falling prices, which would enable them to buy them later for an additional profit.

Some analogies that have been drawn, but are likely false etymologies:

  • It relates to the common use of these animals in blood sport, i.e bear-baiting and bull-baiting.
    • It refers to the way that the animals attack: a bull attacks with its horns from bottom up; a bear attacks with its paw from above, downward.
    • It relates to the speed of the animals: bulls usually charge at very high speed whereas bears normally are lazy and cautious movers.
  • They were originally used in reference to two old merchant banking families, the Barings and the Bulstrodes.
  • Bears hibernate, while Bulls do not.
  • Bears keep their chin up, while Bulls keep their chin down. (<--- Doesn't make sense then, that would imply a bear market is an upturn and a bull market is a downturn)
  • Bear neck points down while Bull's points upwards.

Another plausible origin is from the word "bulla" which means bill, or contract. When a market is rising, holders of contracts for future delivery of a commodity see the value of their contract increase. In a falling market, the counterparties--the "bearers" of the commmodity to be delivered, win because they have locked in a price higher than the present for future delivery.

Historic examples

  • In May 2006, emerging markets including India witnessed a correction. Indices fell as much as 20% before resuming the secular Bull Run.
  • The most recent example of a correction preceding a bear market was the stock market performance during the 3rd quarter of 2001. Dismal job, labor, and retail numbers in addition to the September 11 attacks pushed the stock market into a correction and later a bear market by September 2001 that lasted until December 2002.
  • The Black Monday crash of 1987 did not push the markets into a bear market. It was a sharp, dramatic correction within an upward trend.
  • The October 27, 1997 mini-crash is considered a somewhat more minor stock market correction when compared to Black Monday, but, like the 1987 crash, it was a correction during an upward trend.

See also

  • Trend following
  • Business cycle
  • Financial markets
  • List of finance topics
  • Stock market
  • Technical analysis

External links

  • Braze, David. What Is a Bear Market? The Motley Fool.
  • Quinion, Michael Bulls and Bears, World Wide Words, [5].
  • Rejoice in a Stock Market Correction
  • Secular market trends
  • Investment Trivia: History of Bulls and Bears
  • Trend following systems Explains the basic concepts of trend following systems.
  • Article about how Richard Farleigh used trends
  • Real Estate Investor Forum Discussing Market Trends
Retrieved from "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_trends"