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WIKIBOOKS
DISPONIBILI
?????????

ART
- Great Painters
BUSINESS&LAW
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- Fundamentals of Law
- Marketing
- Shorthand
CARS
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GAMES&SPORT
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COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY
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EDUCATION
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LITERATURE
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LINGUISTICS
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- English Dictionaries
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MEDICINE
- Medical Emergencies
- The Theory of Memory
MUSIC&DANCE
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SCIENCE
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LIFESTYLE
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TRADITIONS
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NATURE
- Animals

- Fruits And Vegetables



ARTICLES IN THE BOOK

  1. Active recall
  2. Alzheimer's disease
  3. Amnesia
  4. Anamonic
  5. Anterograde amnesia
  6. Atkinson-Shiffrin memory model
  7. Attention versus memory in prefrontal cortex
  8. Baddeley's Model of Working Memory
  9. Barnes maze
  10. Binding problem
  11. Body memory
  12. Cellular memory
  13. Choice-supportive bias
  14. Chunking
  15. Clive Wearing
  16. Commentarii
  17. Confabulation
  18. Cue-dependent forgetting
  19. Decay theory
  20. Declarative memory
  21. Eidetic memory
  22. Electracy
  23. Emotion and memory
  24. Encoding
  25. Engram
  26. Episodic memory
  27. Executive system
  28. Exosomatic memory
  29. Explicit memory
  30. Exposure effect
  31. Eyewitness memory reconstruction
  32. False memory
  33. False Memory Syndrome Foundation
  34. Flashbulb memory
  35. Forgetting
  36. Forgetting curve
  37. Functional fixedness
  38. Hindsight bias
  39. HM
  40. Human memory process
  41. Hyperthymesia
  42. Iconic memory
  43. Interference theory
  44. Involuntary memory
  45. Korsakoff's syndrome
  46. Lacunar amnesia
  47. Limbic system
  48. Linkword
  49. List of memory biases
  50. Long-term memory
  51. Long-term potentiation
  52. Lost in the mall technique
  53. Memory
  54. Memory and aging
  55. MemoryArchive
  56. Memory consolidation
  57. Memory distrust syndrome
  58. Memory inhibition
  59. Memory span
  60. Method of loci
  61. Mind map
  62. Mnemonic
  63. Mnemonic acronym system
  64. Mnemonic dominic system
  65. Mnemonic link system
  66. Mnemonic major system
  67. Mnemonic peg system
  68. Mnemonic room system
  69. Mnemonic verses
  70. Mnemonist
  71. Philip Staufen
  72. Phonological loop
  73. Picture superiority effect
  74. Piphilology
  75. Positivity effect
  76. Procedural memory
  77. Prospective memory
  78. Recollection
  79. Repressed memory
  80. Retrograde amnesia
  81. Retrospective memory
  82. Rosy retrospection
  83. Self-referential encoding
  84. Sensory memory
  85. Seven Meta Patterns
  86. Shass pollak
  87. Short-term memory
  88. Source amnesia
  89. Spaced repetition
  90. SuperMemo
  91. Synthetic memory
  92. Tally sticks
  93. Testing effect
  94. Tetris effect
  95. The Courage to Heal
  96. The Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two
  97. Tip of the tongue
  98. Visual memory
  99. Visual short term memory
  100. Visuospatial sketchpad
  101. VTrain
  102. Working memory


 

 
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    ENGLISHGRATIS.COM è un sito personale di
    Roberto Casiraghi e Crystal Jones
    email: robertocasiraghi at iol punto it

    Roberto Casiraghi           
    INFORMATIVA SULLA PRIVACY              Crystal Jones


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THE THEORY OF MEMORY
This article is from:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias

All text is available under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Text_of_the_GNU_Free_Documentation_License 

Hindsight bias

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

Hindsight bias, sometimes called the I-knew-it-all-along effect, is the inclination to see past events as being predictable and reasonable to expect, perhaps because they are more available than possible outcomes which did not occur. Subjects also tend to remember their own future predictions as being more accurate than they were after the fact. People are, in effect, biased by the knowledge of what has actually happened when evaluating its likelihood.

Hindsight bias has been demonstrated experimentally in a variety of settings, including politics, games and medicine. Prophecy that is recorded after the fact is an example of hindsight bias, given its own rubric, as vaticinium ex eventu.

It has been shown that examining possible alternatives may reduce the effects of this bias.

The Polish proverb "Mądry Polak po szkodzie", which means "A Pole is wise after damage occurred", is an example of hindsight bias.

Classic studies

Paul Lazarsfeld (1949): Lazarus gave participants interpretive statements that seemed like common sense immediately after they were read, but in actuality the opposite was true.

Karl Teigen (1986): Teigen gave participants proverbs to evaluate. When participants were given the proverb "Fear is stronger than love", most students would rate it as true; when given its opposite ("Love is stronger than fear"), most would also rate that as true.

Consequences and implications

Some famous critics of the social sciences (Cullen Murphy [1990]) claim social scientists find that "[...] people's behavior is pretty much what you'd expect."

Phrases

The following common phrases are illustrative of this fallacy:

  • "With the wisdom of hindsight."
  • "Retrospective foresight."
  • "Hindsight is 20/20."
  • "We're all Monday morning quarterbacks."
  • "Knowing what I know now..."

See also

  • Cognitive bias
  • Historian's fallacy
  • List of cognitive biases
  • Memory
  • Memory bias

References

  • Bernstein, Michael André. (1994). Foregone Conclusions: Against Apocalyptic History. Berkeley: University of California Press.
  • Fischhoff, B. & Beyth, R. (1975). "I knew it would happen": Remembered probabilities of once-future things. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 13, 1-16.
  • García Landa, José Ángel. (2004) "The Hermeneutic Spiral from Schleiermacher to Goffman: Retroactive Thematization, Interaction, and Interpretation." BELL (Belgian English Language and Literature) ns 2: 155-66.
  • Memory (2003). Special issue on Hindsight Bias, ed. Ulrich Hoffrage and Rüdiger F. Pohl).11.4/5.
  • Morson, Gary Saul. (1994). Narrative and Freedom: The Shadows of Time. New Haven: Yale University Press.
  • Meyers, David G. (2005). Social Psychology. Boston: McGraw Hill (p. 18-19).

External links

Wikiquote has a collection of quotations related to:
Hindsight bias
  • Objects in the Rearview Mirror May Appear Firmer Than They Are: Retrospective/Retroactive Narrative Dynamics in Criticism (José Ángel García Landa, University of Zaragoza, Spain)
Retrieved from "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias"